The Bitcoin Spot ETF Approval: What Are the Chances?

Bloomberg Analyst Eric Balchunas Reduces Chance of SEC Rejecting Launch of Bitcoin Spot ETF to 5% - Here's Why

Revised forecast Analyst from Bloomberg reduces chances of Bitcoin ETF rejection to 5%.

📅 Jan 10, 2023 🕐 5 min read


With the anticipated decision by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on various Bitcoin spot ETF proposals just around the corner, the crypto community is anxiously waiting for a breakthrough. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas has recently lowered the probability of the SEC denying the Bitcoin spot ETF launch to a mere 5%. Let’s dive into the reasons behind this revised forecast and explore what it means for the industry.

The Almost Certain Approval

In October, Eric Balchunas, alongside fellow Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart, predicted a 90% chance for ARK Invest and 21 Shares to receive approval for their joint Bitcoin spot ETF bid on January 10. However, in Balchunas’ recent X post on January 6, he raised the likelihood to a staggering 95%. According to him, there is only a 5% probability of the SEC rejecting the ARK/21 ETF bid in the coming days.

This optimistic shift in forecast is based on the unlikelihood of all potential scenarios that may cause a delay or non-approval of the ARK/21 Shares Bitcoin spot ETF application. Seyffart pointed out three possible scenarios: ARK/21 Shares withdrawing their proposal, the SEC discovering new reasons for rejection, or direct intervention from the US Presidency. However, Seyffart deemed these scenarios highly unlikely, suggesting a smooth path towards approval.

What Lies Ahead

The deadline for the SEC’s response to the ARK/21 Shares joint bid is earlier than the other proposals. It is believed that the SEC will opt to approve several Bitcoin spot ETF applications at once, regardless of their respective final deadline dates. This approach mirrors the SEC’s handling of Ether futures ETFs in August.

Discussions between the SEC and various applicants, leading to amendments in proposals, further solidify the belief in an imminent approval. While the set date of expectation remains January 10, crypto enthusiasts eagerly await the potential bullish effects of a spot ETF on Bitcoin’s price throughout the year. As of now, Bitcoin sits at $44,050, having gained 4.50% in the last week.

Bitcoin Trading > BTC trading at $44,038.02 on the daily chart | Source: BTCUSDT chart on

Q&A: Answering Your Burning Questions

Q: How significant is the SEC’s decision on Bitcoin spot ETFs for the crypto industry?

A: The SEC’s approval would mark a major milestone for the crypto industry, providing institutional investors with a regulated pathway into Bitcoin. It would legitimize the asset class and potentially attract significant inflows, driving mass adoption of cryptocurrencies.

Q: What impact can a Bitcoin spot ETF approval have on Bitcoin’s price?

A: The approval is expected to have a bullish impact on Bitcoin’s price as it opens the door for institutional investors who were previously skeptical due to regulatory concerns. The increased demand could lead to a surge in prices.

Q: Will the potential approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs encourage other countries to follow suit?

A: Absolutely! If the SEC approves Bitcoin spot ETFs, it will likely pave the way for other countries to consider similar products. It could trigger a domino effect of global regulatory acceptance, providing further legitimacy to the entire cryptocurrency market.

What Lies Beyond

While the odds are heavily in favor of the SEC approving the Bitcoin spot ETFs, it’s crucial to remember that no prediction is without risk. Despite the positive outlook, it’s advisable to approach investments with caution and conduct thorough research.

Check out these related articles for more insights on the Bitcoin spot ETF saga: – Bitcoin Spot ETF: VanEck’s Head Of Research Says BlackRock Has $2 Billion In Investments Lined UpETF Or Halving: Analyst Doubles Down On Bullish Year For BitcoinARK 21SharesBitcoin spot ETFBloomberg analystSEC

Share Your Thoughts

Are you excited about the potential approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs? How do you think it will impact the crypto market? Join the conversation on social media and let us know your thoughts! 💬📲

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