Price analysis on September 25: SPX, DXY, BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, ADA, DOGE, TON, SOL.

Price analysis on September 25: SPX, DXY, BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, ADA, DOGE, TON, SOL.

The State of the Blockchain Industry

The cryptocurrency market, led by Bitcoin (BTC), continues to face challenges from the bears, as they attempt to push the price below the $26,000 support level. However, the bulls have shown resilience, making efforts to achieve a positive monthly close for Bitcoin in September. This would be a significant development, as it hasn’t happened since 2016. The upcoming month of October historically favors buyers, as Bitcoin has seen negative monthly closes in October only twice in the past: in 2014 and 2018.

Despite these potential positive factors, Bitcoin bulls may face hurdles in maintaining their momentum due to macroeconomic headwinds. A strong US dollar, exhibiting its longest winning streak since 2014, poses a risk to the recovery of the cryptocurrency market. The US dollar index (DXY) has even formed a golden cross, indicating further potential upside in the near future.

S&P 500 Index analysis

The S&P 500 Index has experienced a sharp decline from the downtrend line and has broken below the moving averages. This downward move has brought the index to a crucial support level at 4,325. With the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) turning down and the relative strength index (RSI) nearing oversold territory, it appears that bears have the upper hand. Sustaining below 4,325 could complete a bearish head and shoulders (H&S) pattern, setting a target of 4,043. However, a bullish scenario would require a swift rally above the 20-day EMA to attract further buying and potentially retest the local high at 4,607.

U.S. dollar index analysis

The U.S. dollar index has shown positive sentiment as it rebounded from the 20-day EMA on September 20th. The key level to watch in the near term is 106. If the price turns down at this resistance but bounces off the 20-day EMA, it could signal a rally above 106, with the next resistance level at 108. On the other hand, sellers would need to push the price below the 20-day EMA to weaken the bullish momentum, potentially leading to a drop to 104.40 and the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at 103.35.

Bitcoin analysis

Bitcoin’s price action on September 24th suggests an assertion of dominance by bears, following an inside-day candlestick pattern on September 22nd and 23rd. Sellers are aiming to strengthen their position further by testing the solid $24,800 support level. This level is crucial as bulls are expected to defend it vigorously. However, if the $24,800 support is breached, it could trigger a downward move towards $20,000. Time is running out for the bulls, as a sustained push above the moving averages is necessary to initiate a meaningful recovery and retest the overhead resistance at $28,143.

Ether analysis

Ether (ETH) has been gradually sliding towards the pivotal $1,531 level, indicating a lack of buying support from bulls. The downsloping moving averages favor sellers, but the RSI is showing signs of forming a bullish divergence, suggesting reduced selling pressure. A reclaim of the 20-day EMA ($1,616) would indicate range-bound action between $1,531 and $1,746, while a sustained drop below $1,531 could lead to a plunge towards $1,368.

BNB analysis

BNB (BNB) has been trading within the range of $220 and $203 in recent days. In this range, traders typically buy near support and sell near resistance. Although both moving averages slope downward, indicating an advantage for bears, the RSI attempts to form a bullish divergence, suggesting weakening bearish momentum. Buyers are expected to defend the $203 level strongly. If the price rises or bounces off $203, it suggests a continuation of the range-bound action. To take control, sellers would need to push the price below $203, potentially leading to a plunge towards $183.

XRP analysis

XRP’s price fell below the 20-day EMA ($0.50) on September 24th, implying bears have gained the upper hand. If the price rebounds off the uptrend line, the bulls will try to push it above the 20-day EMA, signaling aggressive buying at lower levels. In this case, the pair could climb towards the 50-day SMA ($0.53). However, if the uptrend line fails, XRP’s price may slump to $0.46 and subsequently to the strong support at $0.41, which would likely attract strong buying pressure.

Cardano analysis

Cardano (ADA) dropped to the critical support level at $0.24, indicating sustained bearish pressure. Despite this, a minor advantage for the bulls is indicated by the RSI forming a bullish divergence. To mitigate the risk of a breakdown below $0.24, bulls need to quickly push the price above the downtrend line. Achieving this would invalidate the bearish descending triangle pattern and potentially boost the price to $0.29. Conversely, a price dip below $0.24 could complete the bearish setup, resulting in a downward move towards $0.22 and potentially $0.19.

Dogecoin analysis

Dogecoin (DOGE) has been trading within a tight range between $0.06 and the 20-day EMA ($0.06). Such a volatility squeeze typically precedes an expansion, but the direction of the breakout is challenging to predict. If the price turns up from the current level, bulls will attempt to clear the overhead hurdle at the 20-day EMA. A successful breakthrough could push the DOGE/USDT pair towards $0.07 and later to $0.08, where bears are expected to sell. Conversely, a downside breakout below $0.06 would indicate bearish control, potentially leading to a decline to the major support level at $0.055.

Toncoin analysis

Toncoin (TON) saw a sharp downturn from the overhead resistance at $2.59 on September 20th, resulting in bullish profit-taking. The first support level to watch is the 20-day EMA ($2.11), where a rebound would indicate positive sentiment and buying on dips. This rebound could fuel another attempt to push the price to $2.59. A move below the 20-day EMA would suggest weakening bullish momentum, potentially taking the TON/USDT pair to the psychological level at $2, followed by the 50-day SMA at $1.72. A deeper correction could delay the next leg of the upward move.

Solana analysis

Solana (SOL) has been locked between the 20-day EMA ($19.53) and the 50-day SMA ($20.80), signaling a battle between bulls and bears. The flat 20-day EMA, combined with the RSI just below the midpoint, indicates a balance of supply and demand. Moving above the 50-day SMA would mark the start of a potential recovery towards $22.30. Alternatively, a downward turn from the current level would suggest bearish control, possibly retesting the important support at $17.33. Breaking this level might push the pair further down to $14.

In conclusion, the cryptocurrency market is still under the influence of bearish pressures. Bitcoin’s struggle to maintain its price above $26,000 and the US dollar’s strength pose challenges for the overall recovery of the market. However, the historical tendencies favoring October buyers and potential bullish divergences on various altcoins indicate a glimmer of hope for bulls. Traders should closely monitor the key levels and price action to gain insights into the future direction of the market.

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