Is the United States Approving a Spot Bitcoin ETF? Gamblers on Polymarket Bet Big!

Speculators Wagered $12 Million on SEC's Approval of Spot Bitcoin ETF by Jan. 15

Polymarket users wagered $12 million on the outcome of spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Bitcoin ETF Approval

Are you the gambling type? Well, apparently some people are, especially when it comes to predicting whether the United States would approve a spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund (ETF) before mid-January. Over $12 million was placed on a Polygon-based decentralized predictions market, Polymarket, in wagers betting either “YES” or “NO” to spot Bitcoin ETFs being approved before Jan. 15. That’s a lot of moola, folks!

Betting on the BTC ETF Approval

The bets started way back in December 2023 and the suspense built up until the SEC’s official announcement on January 10, 2024. And guess what? The SEC did approve the trading and listing of 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs. Cha-ching! The gamblers who had placed their bets on “YES” must be celebrating now. 💰

But here’s where it gets interesting. Some losers who had bet on “NO” are still arguing that the bet is not over. They claim that the SEC’s official statement used the term “exchange-traded products” instead of ETFs. Ah, the technicalities of it all! It seems like they’re clutching at straws, trying to find a loophole to hold on to their hope. Sorry, folks, the game is over! 🎮

Polymarket Surges with Prediction Market Activity

The highly anticipated SEC decision pumped up the prediction market activity on Polymarket. According to Dune Analytics, Polymarket even saw more volume than the popular nonfungible token (NFT) marketplace, OpenSea, on January 10. That’s impressive considering the fervor around NFTs lately. So, who said predictions aren’t exciting?

Polymarket daily volume Polymarket daily volume. Source: Dune Analytics

What’s Next? A Bet on Ether ETF Approval!

Polymarket doesn’t want to stop the fun just yet. They also have a bet running on the approval of a spot Ether (ETH) ETF. However, this particular wager hasn’t gained as much attention as the Bitcoin ETF one. So far, only $4,155 has been wagered on the outcome, with “YES” votes leading by 75%. Polymarket jokingly stated that the participants “simply aren’t bullish enough.” Well, maybe they’re all waiting to see how this BTC ETF decision pans out before jumping in on the action.

Q&A: Your Burning Questions Answered!

Q: How does Polymarket work? A: Polymarket is a decentralized predictions market where users can place bets on the outcome of various events, including financial and political decisions. It operates on the Polygon blockchain and allows users to trade in prediction tokens.

Q: Are prediction markets legal? A: Prediction markets are legal in many jurisdictions, but regulations may vary. In the United States, for example, there are certain restrictions on prediction markets. It’s always a good idea to check the local regulations before getting involved.

Q: Can I make money by participating in prediction markets? A: Yes, if you make accurate predictions, you can make money by participating in prediction markets. However, it’s important to note that prediction markets involve risk, and there’s a chance of losing your bets as well.

Q: What other prediction markets are available? A: Apart from Polymarket, there are several other prediction market platforms you can explore, such as Augur, Gnosis, and Inkling.

The Future of Predictions

Prediction markets offer an exciting way to engage in speculative betting and gain insights into market sentiment. As they continue to gain popularity, we can expect to see more prediction markets emerging in various sectors, including finance, sports, and entertainment. These markets not only provide entertainment but also serve as a valuable source of information and predictions for investors and enthusiasts.

With the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs, the cryptocurrency market is entering a new phase of legitimacy and adoption. This could potentially attract more investors and pave the way for further mainstream adoption. The future looks bright for the crypto space, and prediction markets like Polymarket are here to make it even more interesting!


  1. BTC Price at $43K as Smart Money Bets Big on Bitcoin Ahead of Potential ETF Approval
  2. Bitcoin Halving 2024: 100 days and 15,000 blocks away
  3. Deniers of Crypto’s, Flat-Earthers of Markets Flash 8:3 Odds of Bitcoin ETF Approval
  4. Crypto Exchange Listing and Delisting Announcements – January 8, 2024
  5. Blockchain: 4,155-Next Major Ethereum Targets, According to a Model
  6. Bitcoin Ordinals versus Off-Chain NFT Storage: Execs Explain Why They Choose
  7. Celsius Could Unstake Thousands of Ether, Possibly Easing ETH Selling Pressure
  8. ICP, ARB, STX, and MKR Flash Signs as Traders Anticipate Spot Bitcoin ETF Approval

Hey readers, ever tried your luck in a prediction market? 🎲 Share your betting stories with us in the comments below! And if you enjoyed this article, don’t forget to hit that share button and let others join the fun. Until next time, may fortune favor you!

We will continue to update Phone&Auto; if you have any questions or suggestions, please contact us!


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