Is it best to buy Bitcoin next Monday with the price stalling below $31,000?

The Bitcoin and crypto market closely watched the expiration of quarterly BTC and ETH options today (at 8:00 am UTC / 4:00 am EST). It was the second largest in history, with a volume of 159,000 BTC options and 1.25 million ETH options, totaling almost $7 billion.

The market expected a significant increase in volatility, but it did not happen. Leading up to the expiration, the BTC price briefly surged as high as $31,300 before pulling back to around $30,700. As a result, the event turned out to be uneventful.

Options analysts at Greeks.Live confirmed that the quarterly expiration has been completed. More BTC block calls were traded in the last few days, mainly to close and roll positions at the end of the quarter. ETH options were mainly in the order book. They added:

With the quarterly expiration, the market has seen a release of positions that have built up in recent months, and options could see a larger shift if the market supports it in July.

Although volatility levels have risen this month and market makers are actively buying positions, the downward trend in major term IV is evident due to strong selling pressure from quarterly delivery.

What’s Next For Bitcoin?

Today’s daily close could be extremely important for the Bitcoin price. It is the end of the month, end of the quarter, and the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index, the US Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, will be released at 8:30 am EST (12:30 pm CET). The US market is closed on Tuesday for the Fourth of July, Independence Day.

The PCE price index is preferred by the Fed because it provides broader coverage of consumer spending, includes chain weighting to accurately track behavioral changes, accounts for the substitution effect, and uses comprehensive data sources. The PCE is considered a more flexible and representative indicator of inflation compared to other indexes such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI).

While headline CPI data have been strong in recent months, core inflation has been shown to be sticky. Therefore, there will be a lot of focus on core PCE data. The expectation for PCE inflation is 3.9% and for core PCE 4.7% year-over-year. A surprise to the downside has the potential to provide a bullish boost to both the traditional financial market and the Bitcoin and crypto markets.

As renowned analyst @rektcapital mentioned on Twitter, BTC is positioning itself for a monthly close above a resistance level that has rejected the price for the past three months. Currently, BTC is holding above the same level. Therefore, the monthly and quarterly close could be extremely bullish indicators for July.

Is The Best Time To Buy Next Monday?

Analyst @tedtalksmacro recently published an analysis of Bitcoin’s historical performance on Twitter. The results may suggest that the upcoming Monday, July 3, is historically the best time to buy Bitcoin.

As the analyst noted, July has been the best performing month since October 2009. However, the data is skewed due to a 10x increase in July 2010. Taking only the last five years of data, the best performing month is October, closely followed by July.

On a weekly basis, Mondays are the best day to buy and hold BTC, assuming buyers do not hold BTC on any other day.

At press time, the Bitcoin price was below the $31,000 resistance zone, trading at $30,856.

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