ETH Price Prediction: Buy Signal, 78% Accuracy

ETH Price Prediction: Buy Signal, 78% Accuracy

Ethereum’s TD9 Buy Signal and Its Historical Accuracy

In the highly volatile world of cryptocurrency trading, reliable indicators play a crucial role in guiding traders through the turbulent market. One such indicator that has been gaining attention is the Tom Demark 9 (TD9). Recently, renowned analyst Joe McCann shared his insights on Twitter, revealing the remarkable historical accuracy of TD9 buy signals for Ethereum (ETH).

Understanding the TD9 Indicator

The TD9 indicator is a technical analysis tool that aims to identify potential trend reversals in an asset. It also measures whether the asset is overbought or oversold, similar to the Relative Strength Index (RSI). When a TD9 buy signal occurs, it suggests a potential buying opportunity for the asset.

According to McCann, historical data showcases the TD9 buy signal’s accuracy for ETH, with a win rate of nearly 78%. This means that 78% of the time, following a TD9 buy signal, ETH experienced a significant price increase.

Impressive Performance of ETH following TD9 Buy Signals

Digging deeper into the data, McCann highlights the impressive performance of ETH following TD9 buy signals. On average, ETH surged by over 2.6% in the seven days following the signal, with a median return of almost 5%. These figures alone capture the interest of traders looking for an edge in the crypto market.

To provide a more nuanced picture, McCann focused on the year 2019, which he deems analogous to the 2023 crypto market cycle. The results are even more captivating, showing a remarkable win rate of nearly 90% for TD9 buy signals during that period.

However, it’s crucial to note that no indicator is foolproof, and there are exceptions and occasional inaccuracies. McCann’s data reveals instances where the TD9 buy signal failed to predict ETH’s price movement accurately. For example, on March 13, 2018, ETH experienced a massive decline of 19.3% within seven days after the buy signal.

On the other hand, the TD9 buy signal has also predicted some massive rallies for ETH. For instance, on December 10, 2018, following the signal, ETH experienced a substantial increase of 3.7% in the first seven days, followed by a staggering rise of 53.0% in 14 days and 64.5% in 30 days.

The Accuracy of TD9 Signals Over Time

It’s worth noting that the accuracy of the TD9 indicator tends to decrease over time. While the indicator has a success rate of 78% in the first seven days, with an average 7-day forward return of +2.65% and a median return of almost 5%, the success rate declines in the subsequent period. After 14 days, the TD9 indicator’s success rate drops to only 55.5%, with a mean return of 3.8% and a median return of 5.7%. After 30 days, the success rate further decreases to 63.0%, with a mean return of 6.9% and a median return of 3.8%, since 2018.

The Impact of External Factors

While the TD9 buy signal indicates a positive outlook for ETH, the crypto market remains vulnerable to external factors. One such factor is the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for July 26th. The meeting will discuss monetary policy, including potential interest rate changes.

McCann raises the question of whether Jerome Powell, the Chair of the Federal Reserve, will make any announcements that could impact ETH’s price during the press conference following the meeting. Traders should remain cautious and monitor the outcome of the FOMC meeting, as it could potentially impact the entire cryptocurrency market.

At the time of writing, the price of Ether (ETH) stands at $1,859, and traders eagerly await further developments in the market.

ETH price, 4-hour chart Source: ETHUSD on


The TD9 buy signal has garnered attention in the cryptocurrency community due to its historical accuracy for Ethereum (ETH). While the indicator provides valuable insights into potential trend reversals and overbought/oversold conditions, traders should exercise caution and consider other factors that may impact the market. The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is one such external factor that could influence ETH’s price trajectory. Understanding the TD9 indicator and its historical performance can provide traders with an edge in navigating the volatile blockchain industry.

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