Bitcoin price could reach $46K by 2024 halving, according to Filbfilb interview.

Bitcoin price could reach $46K by 2024 halving, according to Filbfilb interview.

The Future of Bitcoin: Predictions from a Veteran Analyst

Bitcoin (BTC), the world’s first cryptocurrency, has experienced its fair share of highs and lows. However, according to veteran analyst Filbfilb, BTC still has a chance to end 2023 at $35,000, despite facing some downward pressure in the meantime. In a recent interview with Cointelegraph, Filbfilb, who is also the co-founder of the trading suite DecenTrader, shared his thoughts on BTC’s long-term price targets and offered insights into the current state of the blockchain industry.

Bitcoin’s Uphill Battle

Although Bitcoin has been on an upward trend in recent years, it faces several obstacles in its current cycle. One of the major challenges is the failure to launch a Bitcoin spot price exchange-traded fund (ETF). Additionally, the macroeconomic environment today is vastly different from what it was just a few years ago. These factors contribute to the uncertainty surrounding BTC’s price movement.

Despite these hurdles, Filbfilb remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s future. He believes that the block subsidy halving in April 2024 will have a profound impact on BTC’s price performance. Filbfilb even goes as far as predicting that BTC/USD could trade as high as $46,000 by that time.

Possible Price Volatility in the Short Term

Filbfilb acknowledges that there may be a dip in BTC’s price in the near future. He suggests that BTC could potentially drop to the low $20,000 range. However, he also points out that the long-term floor for BTC is expected to be around the lows of $16,000 seen following the FTX crash.

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When it comes to price behavior, Filbfilb expects a reversal in Q4 as miners and smart money “buy the rumor” on the halving. He draws from previous cycles, which have shown a contraction of new emitted supply to the market ahead of the halving. This trend, combined with increased speculative demand, is likely to repeat.

Examining BTC Price Action and the Role of Miners

Filbfilb observes that BTC’s price action this year has deviated from previous pre-halving years. Notably, there has been a failure to break the 100-week moving average. This failure is a departure from the past, as breaking the 100-week moving average has typically signaled the start of a bull market. While some key differences exist, Filbfilb notes that the timing of the recent uptick from the 2022 lows aligns with historical patterns.

On the topic of miners and their impact on price, Filbfilb sees no direct correlation between BTC’s hash rate (the computing power dedicated to mining) and its price. This observation suggests that factors beyond hash rate contribute to BTC’s price movements.

The Grayscale vs. SEC Lawsuit and the Future of Bitcoin ETFs

The outcome of the Grayscale vs. SEC lawsuit weighs heavily on the cryptocurrency community. Filbfilb believes that while the SEC has shown a policy of delaying their decision, it is only a matter of time before a U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF gets approved. He points to large institutional asset managers, such as BlackRock, filing for ETFs and suggests that they would not invest without thorough due diligence. Therefore, he anticipates that Bitcoin ETF approval is more a question of “when” rather than “if.”

The Impact of Inflation on Bitcoin’s Future

Filbfilb highlights U.S. inflation as the “elephant in the room” during this cycle. He explains that high inflation and interest rates limit retail investors’ disposable income, making it less likely for them to invest in assets like Bitcoin. Additionally, the increased risk-free rate of return makes riskier assets less appealing. Filbfilb argues that as long as high inflation persists, investors will be less inclined to allocate capital to Bitcoin.

Metrics for Tracking BTC’s Price

To accurately analyze Bitcoin’s price movement, Filbfilb suggests looking at directional price momentum and market positioning. Metrics such as long/short ratios, funding rates, and open interest provide valuable insights into the market. These noise-free metrics help Filbfilb make shorter-term predictions about BTC.

The Altcoin Landscape and Emerging Opportunities

While Filbfilb’s primary focus is on Bitcoin, he acknowledges the potential of altcoins in the upcoming cycle. He mentions XRP (XRP), which he expects to perform well due to its ongoing legal case with the SEC and its potential to gain market share. Additionally, Filbfilb does not rule out the possibility of Dogecoin (DOGE) experiencing another surge, particularly if Elon Musk integrates crypto into his ventures.

Conclusion

The future remains uncertain for Bitcoin, but Filbfilb’s insights shed light on potential outcomes. Despite current obstacles, there is still optimism for BTC’s long-term growth. With the block subsidy halving on the horizon, Bitcoin could see significant price increases in the years to come. However, it is important to consider the volatility and unpredictability inherent in the blockchain industry. As the technology and market continue to evolve, it is essential for investors and enthusiasts to stay informed and adapt to the changing landscape.

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