5 things to know in Bitcoin this week BTC price up, fundamentals down?

Bitcoin (BTC) is starting the new week in a strong position above $30,000 following rapid gains. BTC price action has been meeting the expectations of bulls after weeks of sideways trading offering little relief. The question on every trader’s mind this week is whether this can continue. While $30,000 held into the weekly close and beyond, in a volatile crypto market, anything can and does happen.

The macroeconomic climate is somewhat “standard” for the final week of June, offering some potential risk asset price catalysts but avoiding several major data releases simultaneously.

The news out of Russia over the weekend seems to have had little impact on market performance elsewhere, as it mostly concluded before the start of the week’s trading.

Turning to Bitcoin itself, a phase of taking stock appears to be here, with fundamentals conversely primed to shift down from all-time highs. The sentiment is volatile, too, with $30,000 being a pivotal level.

Cointelegraph takes a look at these factors and more in the weekly rundown of what is moving BTC price action in the short term.

Bitcoin bulls protect $30,000 at weekly close

Bitcoin drifted lower through the final part of the weekend after briefly touching $31,000. Despite a lack of momentum, bulls managed to defend the $30,000 mark overnight, and at the time of writing on June 26, $30,500 was back as a focus, per data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.

In total, BTC/USD gained 15.6% last week, making it its third-best weekly performance of 2023, according to data from monitoring resource CoinGlass.

“This week is all about flipping that resistance zone/supply zone at $31,000 into support,” popular trader Crypto Tony told Twitter followers. He added that both Bitcoin and Ether (ETH), the largest altcoin by market cap, were at resistance, with the latter facing a battle for $2,000. Fellow trader Jelle agreed, predicting fresh gains on the horizon once $30,000 was dealt with for good.

The #Bitcoin weekly closed right at resistance. Clear $30k in the coming weeks, and we’ll see much higher prices. Until then, I continue buying dips. pic.twitter.com/r4jlRlm4xo

— Jelle (@CryptoJelleNL) June 26, 2023

Trader and analyst Rekt Capital described the wider Bitcoin price correction as “over” and noted renewed flows into altcoins. The total crypto market cap had performed an impressive support retest.

Total #Crypto Market Cap performs a fantastic retest attempt. Once an area of resistance (red), this area has been successfully retested as new support. This retest has sent the entire market into an uptrend. If you like my content – you might enjoy my newsletter. This is where I… pic.twitter.com/hPZV1nUXf1

— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) June 25, 2023

The total crypto market was also on the radar for Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, who eyed its potential reclaim of the 200-week moving average.

The total market capitalization for #Crypto is looking at a reclaim of the 200-Week MA and continuation towards $1.6T. pic.twitter.com/GlmjBjuifU

— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) June 25, 2023

Fed’s Powell, PCE data headline “huge” macro week

The upcoming week will be dominated by two major events from the United States economy. These events are the commentary by Jerome Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve, and the release of the latest U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index figures on June 30. Powell will hold “discussions” on the economy over two days on June 28–29. The PCE figures are the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation trends, and a better-than-expected number could potentially impact its next decision on interest rate adjustments. A financial commentary resource referred to the week as a “huge week with a ‘Fed pivot’ in question,” which may refer to the possibility of the Fed abandoning its rate hike cycle for good.

Mining difficulty due to drop despite BTC price gains

Bitcoin network fundamentals are cooling despite BTC price strength. According to estimates from BTC.com, Bitcoin network difficulty is due to decrease at its upcoming readjustment on June 29. It will mark the first downward readjustment since early May, and it is forecasted to be the second-largest of 2023 at around -2.5%. However, the change is modest within historical context, and the combination of accelerating spot price and declining difficulty is described as “miners’ two favorite things.” The CEO of Texas-based Bitcoin energy firm Cormint suggested that the difficulty blip may be due to the Texas heat wave.

Bitcoin RHODL ratio points to “new breakout”

According to popular analyst Philip Swift, Bitcoin is at the dawn of a “new speculation cycle.” Swift looked at Bitcoin’s RHODL ratio metric and argued that the BTC supply is moving from hodler-based to a speculative instrument. The RHODL ratio looks at the realized value of coins in specific age bands — their value when they last moved. When the 1-week value is significantly higher than the 1-2yr, it is a signal that the market is becoming overheated. The RHODL ratio acts as a useful tool for Bitcoin price cycles and is currently repeating classic behavior expected at the start of bull markets. It suggests that opportunistic traders are stepping in again, indicative of a transition to broader mainstream trading interest.

Sentiment could “swing the other way”

The cryptocurrency market’s mood seems to be significantly affected by the $30,000 price level’s fate.

Related: Bitcoin ‘parabolic advance’ means BTC price all-time high in 2023 — Trader

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which measures the market’s mood composition, has fluctuated considerably in recent days as BTC/USD tries to establish new support.

After reaching a high of 65/100 on June 22, the Index has lost 10 points, trending towards “neutral” territory as spot price momentum cools down.

The index is a lagging indicator, but it demonstrates how sensitive the market is to current price action, not just BTC, with ETH also attempting to flip $2,000 to support.

Based on sentiment data, popular traders warned against longing until clearer signals were given.

“Sentiment could be about to swing the other way,” he said.

Magazine: Gary Gensler’s job at risk, BlackRock’s first spot Bitcoin ETF and other news: Hodler’s Digest, June 11–17

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