5 important things to know in Bitcoin this week, including the fact that $31K was not the end.

Investors say that Bitcoin (BTC) is starting the second week of June in familiar territory, but a breakout is coming. BTC/USD is firmly in its established trading range, while market participants are preparing for some dramatic shifts. Seasoned traders see the signs increasingly pointing to volatility making a comeback, despite there being little by way of macroeconomic triggers due this week. The on-chain analysis provides other interesting insights, reinforcing the idea that for Bitcoin currently, the only “boring” part is the spot price. Cointelegraph looks at the key factors at play as BTC/USD hovers around $27,000 for another week.

Weekly close preserves key trend line

Some popular traders are seeing new grounds for optimism, even though BTC/USD may not have inspired with its latest weekly close. The chances of a breakout toward $30,000 are increasing, as confirmed by Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView. “Feels like it’s a matter of time until Bitcoin finally breaks that 30k level once and for all,” trader Jelle wrote in part of his latest analysis. The 200-week moving average (MA) – a key support line – remained intact, according to Jelle and others. Various support structures on trader and analyst Rekt Capital’s radar covering daily timeframes were also intact. “So far, so good,” he summarized, about an exit higher, potentially invalidating a bearish “head-and-shoulders” structure from the previous weeks. An additional tweet mentioned a “successful retest” of support in the offing. Trading account Game of Trades acknowledged that BTC broke down from a head and shoulders pattern in May, but there’s classic whipsaw action around the neckline. The pattern remains valid unless the price moves above the right shoulder. An accompanying chart gave a potential downside target of just $24,000 for BTC/USD due to the head-and-shoulders pattern. Others looked for less movement, such as trader Crypto Tony, who eyed $25,300 as a possible destination, subject to $28,350 staying unflipped as resistance.

Macro lull comes as traders eye dollar rebound

In an unusual week of calm for traders, June 5-9 will see little by way of macroeconomic data coming out of the United States. With the debt ceiling debacle left behind, the next potential volatility catalysts will come in the form of macro reports for May, such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) print; however, these are not due for another week. With that, attention is focusing on oil production cuts from Opec+ members as prices continue to fall despite existing reductions in output.

The value of the US dollar is a potential obstacle for Bitcoin and cryptocurrency. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has increased by around 3.5% since the start of May, which is traditionally inversely correlated with risk assets. Analysts noted increasing relative strength index (RSI) scores for DXY on weekly timeframes. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 hits 10-month highs and some market participants believe that there could be some catch-up time coming soon for Bitcoin. The net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL) metric created in 2019 by entrepreneur and analyst Tuur Demeester and others shows that overall, the BTC supply is modestly “in the black.” NUPL has delivered an uptrend retest, which is cause for confidence.The first paragraph discusses recent price action in the Bitcoin market and notes two important developments on the NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) chart. The chart shows a retest of a trend and support being made in the “Hope/Fear” sector. The author suggests that the next step for Bitcoin is a move to the “Belief/Denial” range, and that the recent dip to 31k was not the end of the current trend. The second paragraph discusses the current sentiment among Bitcoin investors and how it varies between different classes of investors. Most investors remain cautious, with selling dominating the market since May. However, the largest class of Bitcoin “whales”, those holding at least 10,000 BTC, are adding to their positions while everyone else is reducing exposure. The article includes a chart showing accumulation versus distribution adjusted by cohort. The whales last went through an accumulation phase in late 2022, with Bitcoin beginning its rebound in 2023 shortly afterwards. The whales then entered a distribution phase before flipping back to accumulation in May. The article ends with a link to a magazine article discussing the use of cryptocurrency as collateral for home loans and the risks involved.

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